Plausible and Believable Scenario?

Vladimir Putin scheduled the war to retake the Baltic States – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – for the first half of the last Final Four college basketball game. He anticipated, correctly, that the President’s focus would be on his brackets instead of Russia’s plan to recapture its former glory.
The signs were all there – prior aggression in Georgia, the invasion of Ukraine, the unscheduled “maneuvers” in both Russia and Belarus adjacent to the panicking Baltic States’ borders, the provocative military flights into their airspace and that of nearby Sweden. And the administration, fixated on pushing through its domestic agenda and a legacy-building nuclear deal with Iran at all costs, ignored them.
A week before, the Secretary of State had said in an interview that, “Russia has a legitimate interest in Eastern Europe that we in the West are bound to respect.” Putin had taken that as tacit validation of a Russian sphere of influence over its former subject states. 


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h/t to reader D