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Thursday, March 25, 2021

Wade Sends A Follow Up To The Poll Regarding The Death Rate....

 

 

As of today (Wednesday 3/24/21), the CDC has not published its final U.S. death counts for 2020.  It does publish provisional weekly death data and below is that data (d).

2020: Total U.S. deaths (d): 3,364,084

2020: Death rate (c): 1020.7 deaths per 100,000

 

2019: Total U.S. deaths (a): 2,854,838

2019: Death rate (a): 869.7 deaths per 100,000

 

2018: Total U.S. deaths (b): 2,839,205

2018: Death rate (c): 868.6 deaths per 100,000

 

According to the provisional weekly data, the total death rate went up from 8.7 per thousand in 2019 to 10.2 in 2020, a 17% increase. 

Who was right?  I was surprised by the results of the poll.  All but 2% were mostly right (either no increase or a small increase). When I asked my sweet wife what she thought, her first response was “leave me alone, you’re full of crap”.  Her second response was an increase from 8.7 to 20.  The Feral Irishman has a smarter group of readers than average.

Context: For historical perspective, below is a link to a time series of “age-adjusted death rates” from 1900 to 2018.  The age-adjusted rates seem to be 1.5 deaths lower than total death rates (e).

You can see the spike in 1918 (the Spanish Flu) up to an age-adjusted death rate of 25.4 out of a thousand.   The age-adjusted death rate declined steadily since then and was 10.4 as recently as 1978.

If you don’t believe this, I’ve given you the data sources below.  Do your own analysis and tell me where I’m wrong.  (I’ve been wrong before.)

Who am I?  I’m not the Feral Irishman.  I am 50% Irish blood (Borrisnoe, County Tipperary); I’m the Domesticated Irishman.  I’m a middle-aged married man with school-age children who believed what the government told me until Bush the Lesser told me that there were WMD in Iraq (2003).  (I haven’t believed the State Media since Three Mile Island -- 1979.)  My career was in auditing and then accounting and financial analysis for manufacturing companies. I am a Southern partisan and a fan of German Shepherd dogs.

Editorial opinion:  Solzhenitsyn exhorted us to “live not by lies”.  Those who believe what they are told by the U.S. FedGov or the State Media are fools.   Trump won the 2020 election in a landslide.  There was massive Democrat-orchestrated voter fraud in 2020.  Russia did not interfere in the 2016 election.  Flooding the country with illegals who don’t speak English, let alone Spanish, is a really bad idea.

I decided to follow total deaths because I know the State Media and the U.S. FedGov lie.  Knowing that the Covid infection and Covid death rates are subject to manipulation, the only reliable information is total deaths, since even a government bureaucrat like Fauci can tell the difference between a dead person and a living one.

My condolences to all those who lost loved ones, but an increase from 8.7 per thousand to 10.2 did not warrant shutting down the economy for over a year. The State Media used this slightly worse than usual flu season to create hysteria.  The Ruling Class used the hysteria to help get rid of Trump.

 

 

 

a: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

 

 

b: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db355.htm Summary section at the bottom.

 

 

c: https://www.census.gov/popclock/  The population used in this calculation is the average of the beginning and end of year per this website. 

 

d: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-Select-Causes/muzy-jte6  Weekly death counts for 2020 adjusted for days at the beginning and end of the year.

 

e: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data-visualization/mortality-trends/

 

Cheers,

Wade

17 comments:

  1. How about that cocksucker sununu?

    ReplyDelete
  2. That math won't fly with the conclusion.

    Deaths from all other causes for 2020 were down, tremendously.
    In no small part due to people not out driving, not driving drunk, not shooting and stabbing each other, etc., for a substantial part of the year.

    So now, parse out the COVID deaths from that total percentage, which as you noted is already up 17% over deaths in an average year, and see how much of the lack of other deaths Kung Flu deaths more than made up for.

    Even if we're charitable, and assume all other causes were unchanged, that 17% extra is 150.3 extra deaths per 100K times 3300 (which is the number of 100,000s in a country of 330M people).
    My calculator derives that number to be 495,990 extra dead. That's over 6x worse than a horribly bad flu season, and 20x worse than an average one.

    Neither of those is "slightly worse than average".

    Put in perspective, it's the difference between Tiger Woods driving a golf ball 400 yards, and him driving a golf ball 1/2 to 1 1/2 miles.

    If the national murder rate went up 17% in one year across the board, we'd have the Notional Guard out in the streets in 50 states, and they'd be shooting criminals on sight.

    (And that number of extra deaths - 495,990 - gibes almost exactly with the Johns-Hopkins ARCGIS board's numbers of US deaths, since they have the current tally at 546,364, at present. I didn't bookmark the tally at midnight on Dec. 31, but their tally, and the raw increase in deaths correspond close enough as makes no difference.)

    This was an order of magnitude worse than any flu year.
    And that, from a pissant virus that only kills 1-3%.

    It's absolutely been used to monkey with the economy, basic liberty, and wreak havoc on the entire country, far beyond what was prudent in many cases.
    It was not, however, anything like as mild as "just the flu", even in the worst year you ever lived in. Suggesting otherwise makes a mockery of the plain meaning of the English language.
    Let's leave that sort of gaslighting to the other side, if you please.

    You want to note that where you are things didn't go as bag-of-hammers stupid as NYFS or Joisy, or Nawlins, or Atlanta, go ahead on. But overall, this was every bit the pandemic promised, and it still isn't finished with you or th rest of us, for a host of reasons.

    Just one reason, from your blogroll over yonder-->
    http://voxday.blogspot.com/2021/03/unlikely-to-end-well.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are you sure about that?
      Where I live, overdose deaths are up 74%. In fact OD deaths for 2020 are almost double what Covid deaths are. Also traffic fatalities are up all over the place, which might seem a little counter-intuitive, until you factor in people taking more chances on "empty" roads and driving while impaired.
      Substance abuse and its attendant effects are way up, as are suicide. And these numbers are only going to climb.
      That's not even factoring the elephant in the room that is the reality that the overwhelming majority of people "dying from Covid" were already dying, either from advancing age or more commonly from a combination of advancing age plus co-morbidities.
      If the Covid fatalities were evenly dispersed amongst all age groups and all degrees of health, you'd have an argument, but they're not.

      Delete
    2. In March of 2020, the projections were for 2 million dead by August of 2020. So no, it NOT every bit the pandemic as promised. Not even close. That doesn't mean it wasn't serious or unusual but it was over hyped for various reason.

      The data is still recording. Deaths are still coming but my guess is that over a two or three year period overall deaths will be around that typical 2.8 million/year average due to the wu flu killing old people with with imminent death dates. Then you have Cuomo the killer who helped that process along.

      Delete
    3. And what about all those deaths that happened to those that coyuldn't get their cancers treated because all the surgeries and treatments were put on hold? How's about those that haven't been diagnosed yet, that are walking time bombs? Take THEM into consideration as well.
      What about suicides? Those are WAY up. Again, due to lack of going on with our lives. Our kids are becoming nervous/insane wrecks with all the FUD being shoved at us.

      No, the death rates are skewed. Sorry, but that's... Science!

      Delete
  3. Andrew Cuomo and Gavin Newsom were responsible for most of the spike in 2020.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Except for the actual numbers being contrary, you'd be right.

      As two of the five most populous states, they naturally have more casualties than Wyoming or Alaska.
      The actual biggest body counts are CA and TX, who, unsurprisingly, are also #1 and #2 in population.
      But it kind of shoots the "Newsom and Cuomo" narrative in the ass, doesn't it?

      Cuomo is a homicidal criminal, and Gabbin Nuisance is a certified idiot, but "Newsom and Abbott" doesn't have quite the same ring.
      But the infection rates were worst in ND, TN, and AZ.
      The death rates were worst in NY, NJ, PA, MI, and DC.
      CA's death rate was better than TX, FL, GA, OH, IN, ME, and HI. Of the 24 states + DC that I've looked at.
      But 1.5% of 40M people is always going to get you more dead bodies than will 2.9% of 9M in NJ.

      Less politics, more math.
      This is a disease, not a political candidate.
      The fact that one party has danced in the blood of the victims to enact draconian measures and expand their power is a completely separate issue from the mathematics of this pandemic. Their actions are reprehensible, but that doesn't change the medical facts on the ground, no matter how much people wish it otherwise.

      Delete
    2. Sorry, Aesop old chap, it's a Dempanic.
      DO try to pay attention.

      Delete
  4. Death Rate? Hell, I am concerned with the Survival Rate! With all the vaccines, will it go from 99.7% to 99.8%?

    ReplyDelete
  5. re:
    role-models?

    Stalin and the BOLCHEVICS 'shut down' the economy of the Ukraine 1928-36, murdering somewhere between three million and thirty million from starvation.

    I refuse to recognize the word 'pandemic' to describe the events of 2020-21.
    Instead, I use 'this phase of this Economic Lock-Down'.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I know no one that died from the Covid, however, there are those that died due to shutdowns because of the Covid.
    My mother who was in a home due to the effects of a stroke made it a little over 3 weeks because of lack of human contact and quit eating. There were 2 other ladies that were in much better shape (could walk, talk and feed themselves)in the same facility that made it to June. I had talked to them both in March. Two people early in the shutdown with health issues that needed medical intervention, but were afraid of going to the hospital for what would be a good outcome, but waited too long, and then died in the hospital. Late in 2020, a couple of fairly healthy older folks that told their friends and family that being alone wasn't worth it, and died within a few weeks.
    Two cancer patients that were delayed treatment earlier in the year that lost their battle later after a 6 month delay in treatment.
    That's just off the top of my head, I'm retarded and don't get out much.

    ReplyDelete
  7. We will never know the complete truth.

    ReplyDelete
  8. The .gov lies? Say it ain't so! ;-))

    They lie to us, we know they're lying, they know we know they're lying, but they keep lying to us, and we keep pretending to believe them. - Solzhenitsyn

    ReplyDelete
  9. Aesop doesn't recognize some of the fallacies in his statements. The best comparison would more likely be the total death rate in Sweden. They treated this "Coronadoom" like any other infectious problem and, if you look at the "deaths from all causes" they published starting in 2010 to 18 December 2020, the rate was statistically the same. That suggests that this "pandemic" issue, and the statistical analysis around it may be more complex than initially suggested. One might consider reviewing the work of Dr. Briggs, a PhD statistician that taught at one of the Ivy League schools and is from the "Communist State of Michigan". He gives a good statistical view of this issue. What is being attributed to the "Coronadoom" may not be directly associated with the virus itself but the reaction to it. The one place that I cannot disagree with Aesop is the "mass murder of seniors in NYC by placing known infected patients into a seriously compromised environment. The Communist Gov. of MI, did the same. There are many issues that this reserects and the way Aesop presents his/her side begs the question of whether he lives below the Mackinaw Bridge, and as those from the UP say, is a "Troll".

    ReplyDelete
  10. Wade ol' boy, you are my new best friend.
    Excellent work and points of view.
    Are we related?

    ReplyDelete
  11. Does anyone really expect the political officers at the Center for Democratic Conquest to release real data on the causes of death? FUD is needed to maintain what little control they have.

    ReplyDelete

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