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Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months

  FWIW... I found this info posted on twitter. These are projections for what might happen going forward. You can spend some time navigating the links. I added a few below. I can't verify any of the data or forcasting methods I only share it for those that can or chose to.


The model was most recently updated at 6 a.m. Pacific, March 30, 2020. To view the changes, please visit our estimation updates page


This study presents the first set of estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 by day for the next 4 months for each state in the US.


To determine the extent and timing of deaths and excess demand for hospital services due to COVID-19 in the US.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This study used data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths by day from WHO websites and local and national governments; data on hospital capacity and utilization for US states; and observed COVID-19 utilization data from select locations to develop a statistical model forecasting deaths and hospital utilization against capacity by state for the US over the next 4 months.



Main outcome(s) and measure(s)

Deaths, bed and ICU occupancy, and ventilator use.


IHME’s COVID-19 projections were developed in response to requests from the University of Washington School of Medicine and other US hospital systems and state governments working to determine when COVID-19 would overwhelm their ability to care for patients. 
The forecasts show demand for hospital services in each state, including the availability of ventilators, general hospital beds, and ICU beds. 
The demand for these services is expected to exceed capacity. 

COVID-19 US state-by-state projections  <<<< LINK

 When you go to the link look for this ( image below ) hit the interact bar. It will take you to the United States. You can toggle through the states if you like.


  1. If you look at the raw numbers, we've probably peaked.

  2. Have you seen the latest NH county map infection report 30-MAR? As recently as 29-MAR, they were listing the infection #s found in Nashua and Manchester. The 30-MAR report has gone to a color that gives a range of infections, although the infection # by county are still there. Gee, I wonder what THAT could mean? Your state .gov moving heaven and earth to keep you informed.



  3. Just quoted the numbers to my wife...she laughed because they are useless. Take a close look at the over and under on the chart. Projected...220K beds...the over and under is 106 to 345K...Probably paid millions to come up with that prediction. I could have given them that kind of number for the price of a roll of toilet paper...which has more uses than the paper they printed their report on. Got another prediction...for free...On April 22nd the temperature in Boston will be 67 degrees...(or between 37 and 100 degrees)

  4. Those models are as useful as those for global warming.


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