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Wednesday, March 25, 2020

COVID 19, the Elephant, and the House Cat

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 This is very eye opening piece about the "COVID-19 Virus" and the hype surrounding it. The pop-up ads are a little annoying, but they can be navigated. So, why all the hype? The media and .GOV says "look here". What should we really be seeing or where should we be looking? This article states at the time of it's writing there had been 276 deaths in the United States from COVID 19. Compared to other illnesses such as tuberculosis, this number of deaths is very, very low. I know it isn't comparing apples to apples medically, but how many have died in car accidents, drug overdoses, black on black crime in the cities? All of these and more are social ills. Where is the outrage fear mongering,  draconian measures such as quarantine, and all the hype? Let not your heart be troubled. These thing too will pass away.

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Read the article HERE.

H/T to Irish



7 comments:

  1. Yeah, I posted that a day or so ago on my blog .

    Pretty much spot on as to the exceptional hype over what is, really a rounding error compared to the other forms of death we have.

    (WHich does not diminish the issue if you have the disease, mind you).

    THe Media has hyped the fear to unprecedented levels.

    I have to think that since the Feds have allowed this fearmongering that they must know something that we don't about this disease, or there is another agenda.

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  2. Whoa hold your horses there pardner. I just had this "conversation" with a guy who thinks of himself as a math geek. His position was this thing hasn't even killed as many people as the seasonal flu, therefore ... no big deal. Was his statement about number of deaths(so far) correct? Sure it was. Unfortunately he failed to realize he was standing on a big X marks the spot with an Acme safe falling from directly overhead.Most data we have is from other countries that are in a different spot on the curve of this disease. What rate of case fatalities will we have? We won't know those numbers til it's all over. I can assure you that those numbers will be different from what they are now depending on how slammed our medical system gets. At the moment of the article in questions writing that number was 270ish... now it's over 800.That's well over double what it was at the time it was written. So let's do a little simple math based mostly on conservative assumptions. We will do this in a way that even the most math phobic can follow and apply even as numbers change. Please keep in mind this is back of the envelope figuring. There is some rounding of number. First we'll plug in a number for total population of the country. We will use 330 million and to make it easy, we;ll use 33 million as 1/10th. For a while they were saying 60% would get it and 3 and 1/2% would die from it. Let's plug and play. 6 times that 33 million is with rounding almost 200 million. We'll use 3% for ease of any grade school kids following along.That number is closer to 7 million than 6 million. Those are the number of dead(for perspective,in a pretty bad flu year 70K die. This is roughly 100 times worse. And btw,a "normal" flu year death rate is nearer to 20K so more that 300 times worse.) This being as screwed up as it is we will cross the I's and dot the T's. Best guess of number of hospitalized that DON'T die? Even at a 1 to 1 figure,That means almost 7 million people MINIMUM will want a hospital bed (the bad news is there are roughly 1 million hospital beds total in the country.) The insult added to injury category? You are in a car crash, have a heart attack, your appendix bursts you break your leg ... etc, etc Do you count those as dead due to covid 19? As I write this the Gov. of NY is spouting about how he's ordered hospitals to increase the number of beds from a minimum of 50% to a goal of 100% The media is praising this expletive deleted for his grasp of healthcare details as he positions himself to be the Dem's candidate for pres while he pretends that even if he does increase beds there isn't a chance in hell of staffing them. Later projections have suggested a rate of infection of 80-100% and once the infection rate rises so will case fatality. Yeah, I can't figure out what the hell all the hype is about either

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  3. In Italy the death rate solely attributable to Covid is about 0.8%
    The rest are due to comorbidity with old people having 2/3/4 or even 5 other health issues.
    Australia - 25 million people, 2 week virus incubatipn period, virus been around now for 4 months, 8 dead and they were older with health issues anyway.
    8 out of 25 million so shut down the economy...

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  4. Yes, and today the U.S. death total is just under 1,000/330,000,000 => 0.000003%. So we better close down the whole country, send all the kids home from school for the summer, and give every taxpayer in 2018 who made less than 75K, a nice fat check of $1200.00 which equals about $2.4 Billion, out of a $2,000,000,000,000.00 bailout that will make TARP look like a bad check. Oh yeah, Nancy Piglosi isn't a Mad Hatter, Orange Man Bad, and Vote for That DICK with ears Biden for a Better Amerika? This has turned into the Twilight Zone on ACID!

    TRUMP/BIDEN 2020, aka., 45/2020, or XXXXV/MMXX When are all the damn ARRESTS going to Start? ENOUGH!!

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  5. Select the printer version after opening it and poof, all of the pop-up ads are gone.

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  6. For the record, I never said a thing about shutting down the economy either for or against. That's way the hell over my pay grade. I simply responded to someone claiming this was all a nothing burger. I had hoped that one of the smart people here would chime in to point out to those that think they can do math that they are mistaken. The number of people infected with the virus doubles roughly EVERY THREE DAYS. Those numbers are suspect because of massive under sampling. However, the number of dead is a pretty solid number. It has been doubling every 3 days. As of before midnight last night that number stood at 1000. In 3 days that number will DOUBLE as it will every 3 days unless a cure or preventative strategy is successful. If you want to do RELEVANT math, take a calendar and mark 1000 on the 25th of this month. Next, put a mark every 3 flipping days through the middle of April. Then double every time there's a mark.2k,4k,8k,16k,32k. That gets you to mid April. 15 more days(5 more doubles)brings you to the end of April and brings your total to just a hair under 1.25MILLION dead. Let's be very clear that's more than 25% more dead than there are hospital beds in the whole damn country. Even if no one has a medical problem other than this virus, this will collapse the whole system.You're worried about the economy? What percent of the economy is health care?

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  7. Not to be a dick but 6 days ago I said in 3 days 2000 would be dead doubling to 4000 by midnight tonight. That is an hour and a half from now and the total stands at 3900 right now. The 1 person that commented above saying no big deal is on his own blog referring to those that disagreed with him as mental midgets. hmmmmm

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