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Sunday, April 11, 2021

Some things just don't make sense to me lately.....

  

 Yesterday was spent helping out some friends up in Laconia NH near Lake Winnipesaukee.

The Lake is in central NH and was formed by the glaciers back when they retreated from New England.

It's a huge tourist area surrounded by camp sites to multi-million dollar homes. Boating ranges from

paddle boards to cigarette boats. One of the guys that was helping out works for a boat dealer

that sells ski boat and cruisers. I inquired as to how busy they were. His response:

"I've sold 43 boats already, all over $100,000 and all cash sales" " we can't keep up"

Me: "Holy shit"

Him "Ya, I don't get it and I have no idea where all this money is coming from"


 I am surprised when I here this type of comment regarding boats, and also RV's. I have read that

the RV's are a hot commodity and sales are crazy.  Now add in the real estate boom where houses are

selling for more than asking and there are bidding wars. A couple weeks ago there was an open house

for a home that is down the street. It sits on 4 acres , is rather dated and the yard is filled with old junk

 all around the garage.

There must have been 20 cars lining the side of the road at 4:30pm on a Wednesday when I drove by.


Going back to the boat sales this year. The local news had this story that I read this morning. It confirms

the boat craze which will be even more expensive a hobby with gas prices going up.





LACONIA, N.H. —

New Hampshire marinas are reaping the benefits from a nationwide boom in boat sales.

Boat interest and purchases have increased since the beginning of the pandemic when vacation destinations changed for the summer.

Sales at Winni Marine in Laconia reflect the national phenomenon.

Executive Director Julie Marsh said these sales remained steady through last summer, the winter and this spring.

"Typically this time of year, we should have a stock of about 150. Currently, we have 2," Marsh said. "We do have a lot more scheduled for the summer."

Marsh said people want to enjoy the Lakes Region.

"They're not traveling, and boating is a great social-distanced activity," Marsh said.

The same pattern is occurring at Meredith Marina, with orders coming in "non-stop."

Sales Manager Travis Williams said the marina has just four boats left for 2021 and is switching to focus on next year's inventory.

"I mean if supply could meet demand, I would break all records in terms of sales for the marina," Williams said.

Supply meeting demand has proved difficult for both marinas, partly due to a February ice storm in Texas.

"Manufacturers had a hardtime manufacturing in COVID. Then in Texax, there's a foam shortage and resin shortage a little bit," said.

Winni Marine and Meredith Marina said they have more boats coming. They still have boat rentals available for those wanting to stay on the lakes as temperatures climb.

  ********************************

As I noted earlier, Things just don't make sense. Even the reason they throw out there for the boat sales.

"people aren't going away on vaction and a boat is great for social distancing"?? So your gonna spend

30-40-50-100 thousand dollars on a boat ? How much do people spend on vacations? I also have a 

feeling that once the real nice New England weather gets here, the lake will be a clusterfuck of

humanity. So much for social distancing.

 I think the orgy is ramping up, the balloon is showing stretch marks and Nero is tuning his fiddle.

Maybe I'm wrong.

  

   

36 comments:

  1. I too think it's the last party before the poop hits the oscillating device. We either have CV 2 or mass extermination via elites coming Real Soon Now.

    ReplyDelete
  2. ...about boats. You can't eat them. Neither RV's and ATV's. These will be the first people that come knocking on your door looking for a food hand out, if/when SHTF. When you say NO, they'll threaten you with something like, "you have to sleep sometime". That's decision time, even for relatives.

    Nemo

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A comment like that would be met by severe violence where I’m at. And we’re pretty peaceable people. Family and friends will be the worse of the lot. All should have been planning and thinking of this time coming 10+ years ago. Best of luck to all of you.
      CIII

      Delete
  3. I wonder how much of this hot market in RV's, whether trailers or boats is considered converting fiat currency into durable goods? We sold our old (2008) trailer without even listing it--a stranger knocked at the door and wanted to know if it was for sale. We researched and picked out our new trailer, and had to wait six weeks beyond the "expected delivery date" to get it. If the economy and its currency collapses, we'll still have the trailer in mint condition.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. re:
      dump fiat currency

      Bingo!

      We operate a small organic teaching farm near the outskirts of Eugene Oregon.
      We share this acreage with about three dozen other full-time live-aboard folks in RecreationVehicles and various versions of ExpeditionVehicles.

      We deliver produce and meats to grocery stores in a thirty-mile radius.
      Just north of us is Junction City, home to dozens of RecreationVehicle dealers with thousands of vehicles for sale.

      The last week of March 2021, the RecreationVehicle dealerships were loaded.
      The first week of April 2021, the lots are just about empty.

      As for us, we tend toward durable and edible goods.
      Security ranks high.
      .
      .
      2003, we converted a 1997 Ford CF8000 commercial truck to our concept of an ExpeditionVehicle.
      With nearly two decades of full-time live-aboard, we see very little need for a stand-still house.

      I wonder about the motivations of these new RecreationVehicle buyers.
      Is this similar to the 'toilet-paper grab' of a year ago?

      We learned our live-aboard skills during caravans of experienced full-timers.
      During 'this phase of this Economic Lock-Down', that is no longer an option.

      Delete
  4. I have been asking the RV parks around here how they cope with new RV owners. To say the most they said, "MORONS" Don't know how to back them in, don't know how to flush their black and grey water tanks and asked if the park staff could do it for them... Their use to be a simple etiquette in staying in an RV park, the owners says it isn't there anymore cuz the newbies still think they live in their million dollar homes and have most things done for them. Just wait until the trailer is a few years down the road when maintenance is required and they can't do it for themselves. You will see the new/used trailer market collapse as thousands of RV flooding the market. Most people don't realize, your house doesn't go down the freeway at 70mph, so constant RV maintenance is required.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My guess is there will be RV slums do to this as they will stay right where they are parked and eventually abandoned.

      Delete
  5. I sold my 8 year old boat late last summer for only $1000 less than I paid for it new. Boats, RV’s and even used cars are selling for crazy high prices.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Here in central calif used car prices are exorbitantly expensive. I couldnt understand why until i saw prices on some almost new cars today in the 30 to 40k range. Astonishing, really, a 2003 used durango my grandson looked at was 5000 and needed tie rods replaced in order to drive it. Crazy.

      Delete
  6. A definition -
    Boat:
    /bōt/
    Noun
    1 - A hole in the water that you throw money into.

    Acronym
    1 - Break Out Another Thousand


    Leigh
    Whitehall, NY

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My father said that - usually after he bought still another boat.

      Delete
    2. The two happiest days of your life has never changed.

      Delete
    3. HOUSE:
      Hundreds Of Unsuspected, Significant Expenses

      Thought that one up myself.

      Delete
  7. Same reason everyone is putting money into their house (either new/used/remodel/fix up) Because everyone KNOWS at a basic level that it's all over. The world we used to inhabit is dead. So either we work on our house to make sure we can enjoy/live out/defend our final days or we party like it's 1999. What's the point of saving money when ti's all going to be stolen/made worthless by .gov/NLM/whatever.

    Actions speak louder than words.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So young, so cynical.

      We are doing the 'adapt, overcome'.
      Problem is... each adaptation is over-taken by events.
      The 'old normal' fizzled by the final bite of breakfast, the 'new normal' petered-out around 11am or so.

      This's a great time to be fascinated!

      Delete
  8. I thin for me the question, real estate, RV, Boats, where the "f" is all the cash coming from?
    Our household is so broke that we can't even pay attention

    Anybody know - where is the cash coming from that people are plunking down for the homes - cash sales at higher than asking price for example?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Cashed in my 401k 10 years early and bought a rural farm last summer. Taxes and penalties were brutal, but I dont expect the Dollar to still be around or have any value down the road. I DO expect the stock market to crash at some point, which makes keeping money there for another decade look like a bad idea. I DO expect the Dems to "save" an insolvent Social Security at some point by seizing all private retirement accounts and redistributing them to various groups who "Need" it. I DO expect food shortages in the national crisis and the likelyhood of not being able to travel or work due to not being vaxxed for Kung Flu. So I will grow my own food and barter with the neighbors for the rest. I always wanted a small farm in northern New England and I would rather not wait until I am an old man to get started anyway, the ongoing crisis just made it clear to me that it was time to act.

      Delete
    2. You Sir, are correct. I'm of the exact same frame of mind, 'cept I moved out of the NE down here to TN.
      Selling my snowblower was one of the happiest days of my life!

      Delete
    3. I think cold and snow are a valuable insulator against newly arriving barbarian invaders from tropical regions. You could do a lot worse then Tenn, there are certainly many Heritage Americans in the southern Appalachians with a pedigree of resistance and the country to do it in. I wish you good luck. I picked a spot that works for me in war or peace, is 80 miles from a city of 500,000 and 4 hours from one with a million. Rampaging vibrants from those locations are already a minority population where they are and will have to get through a lot of Armed civilian country dwellers to get to my neck of the woods. It is extremely unlikely they could get that far in force in any shape to sustain a fight even with motor transport. Without it they have an awfull long walk with many natural barriers and possible choke points. My area is far from likely to be the central front of any future civil war, so I expect that the scant security forces will be on their own and wont be getting backed up by the 2nd Ranger Battalion if that type of situation develops. The largest wilderness area east of the Mississippi is also a few days away by foot if things get bad enough.

      Delete
  9. how close to the Canadian border?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Lake is pretty much centered in the state. Probably in the 4-5 hour range depending on where you are.

      Delete
    2. that takes away the nefarious reasons, don't it?

      Delete
  10. As a history buff I noticed in the Roaring 20's just before the the Great Depression slammed into America and the world (YES a World Wide Economic Depression) they Parties the wildest just before it HAPPENED.

    Flappers and openly Gay Clubs were quite the rage.

    Maybe History doesn't always repeat but often it rhymes?

    I'd like to be wrong but too many signals in the Stock Market and the Bond Market (Far MOAR Important than the stock market) are telling me otherwise.

    A "Short Victorious WAR" has always been the GOTO for a Government in MONEY-Social troubles and the Sock Puppet has been pushing for a bit 'O trouble in the Ukraine.

    I fear the Think Tanks "Advising" Biden's Owners have brain rot if they think Russia will simply roll over this time. They have already told us in the most forceful diplomatic ways in Syria and recently in RECALLING their Ambassador from Washington to "F" off. Crimea IS their only Warm Water Port, not subject to the need to Ice Breakers and really Bad Ice Seasons.

    MUD Season in the Ukraine will be drying up in the next few weeks THEN Heavy Armor and Artillery can move Off the Paved Roads. We are CURRENTLY Flying in plane loads of weapons for our "Allies" the Ukrainians.

    Eye Open friends, Eyes Open. I'd be Shocked if cyber actions don't shut down EBT cards (Gimme Dat RIOTS anybody?), the Stock Market and our Grid once things get frisky over there.

    ReplyDelete
  11. One possibility.....people were enjoying the extra money from the Trump years: now they are going to "get what's theirs" before slo jo and the ho take it away.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Exactly. My portfolio doubled under Trump, even gaining 16% during a year of Covid. I am one step away from an early retirement: if I lived and worked in a [BLM Occupied] city I'd already be gone. So far no 'critical race theory' or other BS at work, but when that comes, I go. I'll bet a large number of Americans are going Gault rather than pay taxes to this administration.

      Delete
  12. Living here in NH East of Winnipesaukee I can attest to the craziness of people dropping money on homes, boats and RVs. It’s nuts. My wife and I just sold our used Grand Design RV. 3 yrs old. Nice Rv but they do not hold value. Paid $44000 for it in December of 2017. Sold it for $39000. Cash. In a normal year we would have been lucky to get $30000.
    The realtor I bought my house through called last weekend to see if we want to sell. She has cash buyers. Tempting but I don’t want to start over on a new homestead in this nutty market.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Here is a 20 minute video explaining hyperinflation (with adverts). Essentially, he reviews countries that have experienced hyperinflation in the past and explains why borrowing lots of cash now and spending it on durable goods is a good idea.

    In short, if I borrow $100 and buy 100 cans of beans and hyperiflation hits (as it will) then in a years time, I can sell one can of beans for $1000 and pay off the $100 dollar loan. With the low interest rates applying now, then borrowing low and paying back with worthless, inflated dollars makes sense of a sort.

    https://www.samizdata.net/2021/04/the-predicted-hyperinflation-might-already-be-here/

    Phil B

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. During the Weimar Republics Hyper-Inflation the Government said "The Mark is the Mark". Thus the theory of buying NOW and paying off your debts with near worthless future money.

      HOWEVER in the More Recent Greek defaults and Mexico's re-evaluation of the Peso in the 80's the Debts owed were ADJUSTED to the NEW Value of Money thus SCREWING "The People" even HARDER for the Bankers delights.

      I could also point out the Socialist Paradise of Venezuela (As described by Bernie Sanders) which ALSO Revalued the Bolivar into the "Strong Bolivar" AND Reevaluated the Debts accordingly as to keep their Banks doing well.

      I have stories from my relatives that lived through the Great Depression and DEBT was a fatal disease to your family when the Bankers have the Sheriffs as bodyguards.

      Buy those cans of beans BUT do NOT go into Debt over it. You might find your assets being sold on the Court Steps like so many American's did during the Great Depression over unpayable debts.

      Delete
    2. Old timers with friends in Argentina tell of the women taking their mens paychecks and spending it all on anything "tangible". Appliances would go first. Women would walk the street in the evenings with fur coats on only for their men to sell them at a loss in the morning. Rinse and repeat. He also told of the foreigners there buying up the goods in the morning and shipping them out. These were financially "literate" people hedging inflation.

      MF

      Delete
  14. Drive the country, plenty of inventory of RVs. Might be selling big but plenty available. Car and boat sales-- just look at the financing

    ReplyDelete
  15. I too, have been struggling to understand this phenomenon. Two years ago, I noted that RV sales were beginning to skyrocket. Last year, dealers (and we tried 3) absolutely would not budge off the retail price of an RY and also offered me less that 1/2 retail for mine as a trade in. I have been buying and selling RVs over 40 years. I have never seen a market where dealers refused to negotiate until last year.

    I also manage a site called Travel Trailer Living on FB. Our membership has grown immensely. People are selling out and living in RVs. There are new RV parks springing up everywhere. I have one near my home that opened 3 weeks ago. It already has over 50 rigs parked in it. I had also seen existing RV parks jacking up their rates- particularly day rates.

    My only conclusion is that all those trillions of dollars created out of nowhere have to flow somewhere. They are flowing into real estate and the stock market as people try to obtain some sort of return on their money. What they don't realize is that they have little or no protection. The equity in their house is make believe. Their investments in the market are just as inflated and even more dangerous. All of this with a currency in a country that is bankrupt and owes 84 trillion in accumulated deficits, social security, medicare expenses, and 3.5 trillion in state debt.

    How long can this sht last? A lot longer than it should.

    Brian

    ReplyDelete
  16. If the masses were financially trained I'd be interested in the trend. But, since they are illiterate, I tend to lean to the "get me some" reasoning. They figure that once the dollar becomes worthless, at least they will have a new boat come find it)/rv (come find me)/truck (attached to the rv) that they do have to pay on. The land will be littered by burnt out encampments formed in a circle. Why don't she write?

    MF

    ReplyDelete
  17. Isaiah 22-13:

    "and behold, joy and gladness,

    killing oxen and slaughtering sheep,

    eating flesh and drinking wine.

    Let us eat and drink,

    for tomorrow we die.”

    ReplyDelete
  18. I supply the N.A boat industry. A critical supplier. It's beyond nuts. Also supply the RV market. They are stupid right now too.

    I've never seen this type volume in over 20 years.

    And the forecast is for it to continue, even though their are price increases monthly throughout the supply chain. And the lead times.....wow.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Real estate cash out in low 3%.

    ReplyDelete

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