You can't tell me that where the price of anything "oil" is right now is not gonna make millions for some people who invest. Sooner, rather than later, this shit show will end.
It's gotta go back up, doesn't it? I have been reading about ETF funds that are in the couple buck range.If they go back up to say $10.00 it's 5X.
I know it's gambling and it's risky but I try and be optimistic.
My questions, and it would be great to see comments and discussion, are:
What would you watch for? Relax restrictions? Restaurants open? Trump landslide ( too late to buy I bet)
What stocks, funds, would you buy?
Links to research pages?
Why?
Thoughts?
Play nice, I'm been working on a FFF post for tonight.
These are from Skip:
Never speculate with what you can't afford to lose.
ReplyDeleteRemember that the game is pre-rigged against you.
Consider the tax implications before you "invest".
This has crossed my mind more than once lately too.
ReplyDeleteMaybe warren Buffett reads my blog and he’ll leave some tips for us.
DeleteThere's another oil bomb coming. Supposedly there's a bunch of giant tankers en-route to Texas and other Caribbean oil ports from Saudi. When they get here, there's no place for them to unload as storage is full or under contract to someone else.
ReplyDeletehttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/incoming-50-million-barrel-saudi-210000227.html
The red arrows are tankers.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-42.1/centery:24.3/zoom:2
...and I read another story, I can't find it right now, that indicated there are many tankers parked off of the S. Cali coast waiting to unload. Again, all storage is full.
The oil price isn't going to recover until the world is back to work. Even then, it'll probably take a while to reach stability with all of the oil that's in storage both on land and in tankers parked off of various coast lines.
Nemo
Nemo
My advice would be stay away from the oil ETF like USO. It doesn't track the price of oil directly, it tracks the front month oil futures contract (which has been in negative territory, etc). If you want to buy oil exposure start nibbling on some of the oil majors like XOM, BP, RDS/A, or CVX. Nice dividend yields so you get paid to wait in a sense.
ReplyDeleteYeah..... Stay away. 10-foot pole territory.
ReplyDeleteThe whole negative oil thing is a result of ignorant people throwing money around they've no business doing. Seriously, look into it, it's a future's contract timing thing. Folks that trade oil for a living know when to roll their front-month contracts out, retail investors chasing a quick-buck, do not! THOSE are the people that were left holding the bag, and didn't understand that when you purchase a future's contract, you are agreeing to TAKE DELIVERY OF SAID PRODUCT. In the case of oil, it's in 42-gallon barrel increments at Cushing, OK oil depot. Do YOU have storage for 42 gallons of oil at Cushing OK right now? You don't?!?!?! Well, you better get out of that fucking contract lickety split or we're closing down your trading account for rules violation motherfucker!
Oh, OK, well, then, I guess I gotta pay someone to take my oil off my hands since I'm a fucking moron that doesn't understand what I'm trading!
... And that's how you get negative oil prices. Some fucktwit trying to make a quick buck off an unfortunate dislocation. Someone made money, but not the fucktards holding 100k+ contract 2 days before delivery date on the May oil futures contract.
Hint-hint, it's gonna happen again in the June contract in a few weeks (aka 3rd Thursday in May, for you non-traders!) Thanks to our buddies in Saudi Arabia absolutely STUFFING the Atlantic full of VLCC's full of crude.
Don't look for investing to make a quick buck. Buy a lottery ticket, learn to make bet's at the bar, or trick-shots in pool. If you're interested in what opportunities may present themselves in the future, listen to Warren Buffet: Look for businesses with a wide moat, good collateral, and wait until there is blood in the streets before deploying capital (which means... you need to reserve your capital (aka keep your powder dry!) so that you have something to deploy when the time is right)
Do you think stocks are going to have another big dive in the next few months? I'm thinking of buying an airline or Boeing stock, also one of the big oil company stocks.
Delete"Thanks to our buddies in Saudi Arabia absolutely STUFFING the Atlantic full of VLCC's full of crude."
DeleteWhat's going to happen when all the tankers are full?
With the problems with the 737 and 787, then other issues with their Starliner, I'd stay away from Boeing, unless you are going long. From what I have been told, Boeing wasn't going to get things rolling again until late June - at the earliest. And that was before the Plandemic. Let's just say we are an upstream supplier to them.
DeleteLeigh
Whitehall, NY
You're right on about the futures contract SNAFU this week. Some dipshits lost a buttload of money gambling with the big boys. My son tried to jump in, but his broker would not handle the action.
DeleteIf you look at the price of Brent, it did not go negative.
Run Forest, run. Stay the f**k away from that shit.
ReplyDeleteBS Finance, MBA , over 30 years of experience.
NO, JUST, NO !!
To quote a now banned radio show: He is broker and you is the brokee!
ReplyDeleteOr, Stockbrokers buy yachts, not their customers.
I'd buy October calls in a speculation account. You can buy USO if you buy/hold for awhile you should be fine. I believe oil will remain low for awhile, which will cap some wells, then once things start moving again production will lag and oil will probably hit the 140-150 range. That's some time off, 1.5-3 years, but if you're willing to time up some money that's the play. I, myself, am heavy in gold/silver right now, but will move into oil probably at the end of May beginning of June. I don't think it's going anywhere before that... this isn't capitulation, this speculation, what's changed? Nothing, more planes aren't flying, more cars aren't on the roads, more plastics aren't being manufactured... the market trades more on sentiment than facts, thus trading in the teens... WTI should be $8-$12 right now until production shrinks.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't touch texas tea right now with all thats going on, even long dated options. The shale drillers are being targeted by OPEC, you'd be stepping in front of a bulldozer to pickup pennies. Not worth it. There are safer trades.. like Carnival Cruise Puts!! LOL!!!
DeleteTrump's not that stupid. You lose energy, you lose the stock market. Very sure the government will do everything they legally can (and then some) to prop up the oil market going into the election. One of his bigger talking points is the stock market, he will need to prop it up going into October. I believe you will see oil prices improving from June-Nov... after that, who knows.
DeleteOver the long haul, a few years from now, oil will be well over $100 a barrel.
You wanna trade oil for profit? I hot some good advice once, was very sound.
ReplyDeleteWhen the Jews and the Arabs start shooting at each other, buy oil. Sell it when they stop.
Now is not the time to enter a new trade, there will be more pain ahead, we do not have blood in the streets yet. Not even close!
BOIL
ReplyDeleteGUSH
OIL
All are LOW right now. IF you can wait 6-12 months, you can get 10X or more.
I've done this over several cycles and have a nice next egg.
You gotta watch 'em though. they don't move for a long time, then spike up or down sharply.
What to look for? When a well to do, well dressed, retired old guy taps you on the arm and says, "buy oil stocks".....that's what you look for....
ReplyDelete