Okay, here is my take on the coronavirus thingy. It is a real threat. Reason: it can't be stopped. Reason: it is people to people transmission.
Well then, we'll just have to stop the transmission. Agreed. And how do we stop the transmission? Ah ha, easy, we fix it so people don't have contact with each other. You mean by making them all stay at home? Exackery. Okay, so how long do we make people stay at home until the transmission threat has stopped? Well, that's a good question. You won't like the answer. There is no stopping point, the virus is still outside your home waiting for you to come out.
So what do you propose? Well, we have to develop a vaccine. Which is very likely. In the meantime, people need to stay away from people who already have the virus. So how do we detect who has the virus. We assume everybody does. Does that help? Yes. Reason: you have to be in physical contact with the sick person or in contact with something they have touched. How do we avoid that contact?
I don't propose that we discontinue physical contact with everyone. I propose that after contact we a) wash our hands and b) keep our hands away from our face.
The chart is useful but not useful for the Covid-19 virus. Perhaps in 18 months we will have enough accurate infor on this virus to compare it. We are barely in the first stages of this pandemic. We can only guess at how many it will kill. A mere million? Many million? No one knows.
Well actually most countries will be in the late accumulation (ie approaching the peak) this month so it'll all be dropping off quickly next month. I posted the infographic link to show where CV-19 is relative to historically more serious pandemics. The question is of course why the panic, lockdowns and economic measures have never happened for all the other far more serious and deadly events. It's not CV-19 you have to worry about. It's what comes after it. Next year...
Considering the draconian edicts that we are being subject to in response to covid 19, would it have been asking too much for the fellas to keep other guys dicks out of their asses in response to the aids epidemic?
ZombieDawg, thanks for that link. It's a couple of hours read, but highly informative.
HUGE social decisions are being made based on poor reading of even poorer data. There is a TON of info in that essay; terms everyone should understand such as "excess mortality", and the media "overlooked" fact that not only does northern Italy have the most polluted air in Europe, they have the oldest, sickest population: 99% of the fatalities there were old people with at least 1 serious pre-existing medical condition. To make matters worse, many countries are lumping all fatalities with COVID as being from COVID. Now add in the false positives from first generation tests; you get a whole lot more "corona deaths" than in reality. This is a major source of bad data that leads to bad decisions, given that >75% of people who are actually infected have from no reaction to a mild to moderate one, but for some that new COVID infection is the proverbial straw that breaks the camel's back, and the ones who succumb then die mainly from the other conditions they already had. Conclusion is that the deadliness of COVID isn't all that much, but the reaction (shutting down the world for months) is utterly and unnecessarily excessive.
Okay, here is my take on the coronavirus thingy. It is a real threat. Reason: it can't be stopped. Reason: it is people to people transmission.
ReplyDeleteWell then, we'll just have to stop the transmission. Agreed. And how do we stop the transmission? Ah ha, easy, we fix it so people don't have contact with each other. You mean by making them all stay at home? Exackery. Okay, so how long do we make people stay at home until the transmission threat has stopped? Well, that's a good question. You won't like the answer. There is no stopping point, the virus is still outside your home waiting for you to come out.
So what do you propose? Well, we have to develop a vaccine. Which is very likely. In the meantime, people need to stay away from people who already have the virus. So how do we detect who has the virus. We assume everybody does. Does that help? Yes. Reason: you have to be in physical contact with the sick person or in contact with something they have touched. How do we avoid that contact?
I don't propose that we discontinue physical contact with everyone. I propose that after contact we a) wash our hands and b) keep our hands away from our face.
Come on, man, it's so simple.
The chart is useful but not useful for the Covid-19 virus. Perhaps in 18 months we will have enough accurate infor on this virus to compare it. We are barely in the first stages of this pandemic. We can only guess at how many it will kill. A mere million? Many million? No one knows.
ReplyDeleteWell actually most countries will be in the late accumulation (ie approaching the peak) this month so it'll all be dropping off quickly next month.
ReplyDeleteI posted the infographic link to show where CV-19 is relative to historically more serious pandemics. The question is of course why the panic, lockdowns and economic measures have never happened for all the other far more serious and deadly events. It's not CV-19 you have to worry about. It's what comes after it. Next year...
A follow up.
ReplyDeleteIf you think CV19 is a problem then read this.
It's VERY long but spend the time.
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
Considering the draconian edicts that we are being subject to in response to covid 19, would it have been asking too much for the fellas to keep other guys dicks out of their asses in response to the aids epidemic?
ReplyDeleteZombieDawg, thanks for that link. It's a couple of hours read, but highly informative.
ReplyDeleteHUGE social decisions are being made based on poor reading of even poorer data. There is a TON of info in that essay; terms everyone should understand such as "excess mortality", and the media "overlooked" fact that not only does northern Italy have the most polluted air in Europe, they have the oldest, sickest population: 99% of the fatalities there were old people with at least 1 serious pre-existing medical condition. To make matters worse, many countries are lumping all fatalities with COVID as being from COVID. Now add in the false positives from first generation tests; you get a whole lot more "corona deaths" than in reality. This is a major source of bad data that leads to bad decisions, given that >75% of people who are actually infected have from no reaction to a mild to moderate one, but for some that new COVID infection is the proverbial straw that breaks the camel's back, and the ones who succumb then die mainly from the other conditions they already had. Conclusion is that the deadliness of COVID isn't all that much, but the reaction (shutting down the world for months) is utterly and unnecessarily excessive.